Museveni's Last Vote as Uganda Chooses Between Dictator and Pop-Star Rival as Son Waits in Wings

Uganda heads into a tense election on Thursday with a familiar outcome widely expected, even as the contest highlights the country’s unresolved struggle over succession after nearly four decades under one man.

President Yoweri Museveni, 81, is seeking another term in what allies and critics alike say is likely to be his last election, as he quietly prepares the ground for his son to eventually take over the leadership of the East African nation.

He faces Robert Kyagulanyi, better known as Bobi Wine, a 37-year-old opposition leader and former pop star who has energised younger voters but remains hemmed in by the state’s security apparatus.

Museveni, in power since 1986, is widely expected to win, drawing on vast state resources, a loyal ruling party machine and the backing of security forces that opposition groups accuse of intimidation and violence.

Authorities deny suppressing dissent and say they are enforcing the law.

Bobi Wine, whose support is strongest in urban areas and among the young, has complained of repeated disruptions to his rallies, arrests of supporters and heavy police presence around his campaign events.

Rights groups say the political environment remains tilted heavily in favour of the incumbent, leaving little room for a level contest.

The election will take place without one of Museveni’s most persistent challengers, Kizza Besigye, a former ally turned rival who ran against the president several times over the past two decades.

Besigye is currently in detention on security-related charges, a move that has drawn criticism from opposition figures who say his incarceration is meant to neutralise dissent ahead of the vote.

The dynamics echo the last election in 2021, when Museveni secured another landslide victory but faced an unprecedented challenge from Bobi Wine, who emerged as the leading opposition figure.

That vote was marked by widespread deployment of security forces, an internet shutdown and clashes that left dozens dead, according to rights organisations.

Bobi Wine rejected the results, citing fraud and intimidation, while Museveni dismissed the claims.

Beyond the immediate contest, succession politics loom large. Museveni’s son, Muhoozi Kainerugaba, a senior military officer and outspoken public figure, has been widely viewed as the president’s preferred heir.

His growing influence within the security establishment and public expressions of political ambition have fuelled speculation that Museveni’s final term would serve as a transition period toward a dynastic handover.

For many Ugandans, the election represents a stark choice between continuity under Africa’s longest-serving leaders and the promise of generational change championed by Bobi Wine.

gandae@businessdayafrica.org