Ethiopia, Somalia Edge Closer to Indian Ocean Access Deal

Ethiopia and Somalia are making progress toward an agreement that would grant the landlocked nation access to the Indian Ocean, following high-level talks in Mogadishu.

The discussions mark a significant step in easing tensions between the two countries after months of diplomatic friction.

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s visit to Somalia’s capital comes amid ongoing negotiations to secure a framework that would allow Ethiopia to use a Somali port for trade and maritime access.

Both nations have signaled a willingness to reach a deal by mid-year, with talks focused on technical aspects, including port usage terms, security guarantees, and financial commitments.

The latest diplomatic push follows a period of strained relations triggered by Ethiopia’s controversial memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Somaliland, a breakaway region of Somalia.

The deal, signed in January 2024, sought to grant Ethiopia a 19-kilometer coastal lease in exchange for potential recognition of Somaliland’s independence.

Somalia’s federal government strongly opposed the move, viewing it as an infringement on its sovereignty, and responded with diplomatic and military pressure.

In a bid to de-escalate tensions, both countries engaged in Turkish-mediated talks in late 2024, leading to the Ankara Declaration.

The agreement laid the groundwork for resolving the dispute, with Somalia reaffirming its territorial integrity while expressing openness to negotiating Ethiopia’s access to the sea through an alternative route.

Ethiopia, Africa’s second-most populous nation, has long sought direct maritime access to reduce its dependency on Djibouti, which currently handles about 95 percent of its foreign trade.

Securing an Indian Ocean port would diversify its trade routes, enhance economic resilience, and lower logistics costs.

For Somalia, a structured agreement with Ethiopia could unlock economic benefits, including infrastructure investment, transit fees, and strengthened regional ties.

However, any final deal is likely to face scrutiny from Somali lawmakers, who remain cautious about ceding control over national assets.

Both nations are under pressure to avoid a return to hostilities and ensure that any agreement aligns with broader security and economic interests in the Horn of Africa.

A final deal, expected by June, could mark a turning point in Ethiopia-Somalia relations and reshape economic dynamics in the region.

ligadwah@businessdayafrica.org