East Africa Dry Spell Threatens Southern Africa Food Supplies

An expected dry season in East Africa from January to March this year is likely to worsen food insecurity in southern Africa, which has depended on East African supplies following a prolonged drought.

Southern Africa, which has historically supplied East Africa with food, faces the prospect of failed rains for the second consecutive season, compounding agricultural challenges and raising concerns over food shortages across both regions.

The Climate Prediction and Applications Center of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) said much of East Africa, including Ethiopia, Uganda, Rwanda, Kenya, Burundi, and Tanzania, will experience drier-than-usual conditions during the first quarter of 2025.

Temperatures are also expected to rise above average across the region, the centre said, adding that only southern Tanzania and southwestern Uganda could see wetter-than-usual conditions.

Parts of northern Uganda and western Sudan may record near-normal temperatures.

“This reflects the increasing climate variability caused by climate change,” the centre said in its forecast.Z

ambia, grappling with a deficit exacerbated by the ongoing drought in Southern Africa, is sought to procure at least 500,000 tonnes of maize from Uganda last year.

Similarly, Kenya’s William Ruto pledged maize to Zimbabwe to alleviate the hunger crisis in Harare.

Zambia which has been contending with famine due to a prolonged dry spell that severely affected maize production in 84 out of its 116 districts.

East Africa is among the regions most affected by climate change, with rising temperatures, droughts, floods, and pests increasingly disrupting livelihoods.

Average temperatures in some areas have reached 32 degrees Celsius, further straining agricultural productivity.

More than 64 million people in the Horn of Africa required humanitarian assistance by the end of November due to conflicts and climate shocks, the Food and Agriculture Organization and IGAD said in a recent report.

ligadwah@businessdayafrica.org