Primary School Enrollment Dip 19.2 Percent on CBE Transition

Primary school enrollment in Kenya has fallen by 19.2 percent over the past five years, driven primarily by the mass movement of learners into Junior School under the Competency Based Education (CBE) system.

Data from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) shows that primary school enrollment declined to 8.2 million in 2024 from 10.17 million learners in 2020, reflecting the most significant structural shift in the education sector since the phasing out of the 8-4-4 system.

In just one year, the number of primary school pupils dropped 9.8 percent, equivalent to 901,201 learners, slightly lower than the 1.2 million recorded the year before.

Nairobi recorded the largest fall at 42,034 learners, followed by Kakamega (38,223) and Nakuru (37,003), largely due to their large populations.

The transition comes as the pioneer CBC cohort prepares to join Grade 10, the first level of Senior School, after completing three years in Junior School.

This shift has naturally reduced enrollment in upper primary classes, especially in schools that have already restructured classrooms and reassigned teachers to accommodate Junior School.

On the other hand the Statistical Abstract by the KNBS published annually, shows secondary school enrolments increased by 801,202 in five years to the 4.3 million recorded in 2024.

Data on Junior Schools is available only from 2023 which coincides with the time the first cohort of the CBE transited to that level. JS enrolment nearly doubled to 2.5 million in 2024 compared to 1.28 million the year before.

The enrollment changes reflect changes in classification as learners migrate to the three-tier system of six years in Primary School (Grade1–Grade 6), three years in Junior School (Grades 7–9), and three years in Senior School (Grades 10–12).

The Statistical Abstract provides a comprehensive, single official source of five-plus-year time-series data on the Kenyan economy.

The enrolment changes have exposed disparities across counties with urban areas like Nairobi have seeing faster transitions due to better-equipped schools, while some rural regions have had slower shifts due to infrastructure gaps, teacher shortages, and delays in establishing Junior School facilities.

The KNBS has released the data at a time when the education sector is in confusion, after  President William Ruto’s backtracked his policy direction on management structure of Junior Schools.

The president has promised autonomy for JS teachers last week, barely three months after he had had directed Education cabinet secretary Julius Ogamba to finalise establishment of Comprehensive Schools, where primary school heads oversee JS level.

Both the Kenya Primary School Heads Association (Kepsha) and the Kenya National Union of Teachers (Knut) have rejected the dual-deputy structure arguing it offers no autonomy.

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