Trump’s New Tariffs Threaten AGOA, Putting African Exports at Risk

President Donald Trump’s decision to impose a 10 percent baseline tariff on all imports, alongside higher duties for certain trading partners, has cast uncertainty over the future of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA).

The trade agreement, which allows duty- and quota-free access to the US market for eligible sub-Saharan African countries, is set to expire in 2025.

The new tariffs, which push US trade duties to their highest levels in over a century, could impact negotiations on AGOA’s renewal or modification, potentially undermining African economies that have come to rely on preferential access to American markets.

AGOA, established in 2000, was designed to promote economic growth and development in Africa by facilitating exports to the United States.

Over the years, it has benefited industries such as textiles, agriculture, and automotive manufacturing, creating employment opportunities across the continent.

However, with Trump’s push for increased tariffs and a more protectionist trade policy, there are growing concerns that AGOA might not be renewed or could face stricter conditions.

This would put African businesses at risk of losing their competitive edge in the US market, impacting sectors that have thrived under the agreement.

A key challenge in AGOA negotiations has been Trump’s demand for reciprocal trade arrangements.

The US has repeatedly urged African countries to open their markets to American products, particularly agricultural goods.

However, many African nations are wary of allowing highly subsidised US farm products into their markets, fearing it could devastate local industries.

Small-scale farmers in Africa, who lack government subsidies and operate in fragile economic environments, could struggle to compete with cheaper American imports.

This concern has been particularly pronounced in East Africa, where previous attempts to introduce US agricultural products have faced resistance from local industry groups.

Beyond agriculture, critics argue that AGOA has not fully achieved its intended impact.

While it has enabled African countries to export raw materials and low-value-added goods, it has done little to drive industrialisation and high-value manufacturing.

Some also point to the exclusion of rapidly growing sectors such as digital services and financial technology as a limitation of the agreement.

With AGOA’s expiration looming, the combination of new US tariffs and Trump’s push for reciprocal market access presents a serious threat to African economies.

If the agreement is not renewed or is altered in a way that reduces its benefits, businesses across the continent could face severe disruptions, leading to job losses and economic instability.

ligadwah@businessdayafrica.org